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A month ago, Democrats had a 7-in-10 chance of keeping the majority in the US Senate in the midterm elections, according to a forecasting model built by the wizards over at FiveThirtyEight.

Now? Those odds are down to a roughly 6-in-10 chance, as several key Senate races appear to be tightening in Republicans’ favor.


* In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman’s lead over Republican Mehmet Oz has narrowed, as concerns about the lieutenant governor’s health (he had a stroke in May) have persisted. President Joe Biden appeared with Fetterman during a visit to Pennsylvania on Thursday.

* In Arizona, GOP nominee Blake Masters appears to be making up some ground on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. The incumbent remains the favorite in the race, but there’s no question there has been some tightening.

* A CBS News/YouGov poll out in Nevada shows the Senate race is in a dead heat, with Republican nominee Adam Laxalt at 49% and Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto at 48%.

* Democrats are beginning to point fingers in Wisconsin, where Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes has watched his lead over GOP Sen. Ron Johnson slip away over the last two months. “People are just hitting their heads against the wall. How do we let this happen?” said Tom Nelson, a Democrat who ran for the Senate nomination earlier this year.

* Allegations regarding Republican Herschel Walker’s past relationships with women don’t appear to have doomed his chances against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, with most polling showing the incumbent with a low-single digit lead.

Add it all up, and there’s no question that Republicans are in a better place today than they were even a month ago. That doesn’t mean they are favored just yet to win the majority. But it does suggest that momentum may well be on their side.

The Point: With a 50-50 Senate, every race is the majority maker – or breaker. But with 19 days left before the election, the trend line is moving in the right direction for Republicans.

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